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Heading Towards Another 1929 Crash? Hear Bill’s Thoughts on Spread Betting and the Markets
Honey, I'm home.
I like Bill. What I like is that he isn't pompous. He came with a well prepared presentation and, although he sort of rambles through it, the sense is that he's trying to give us a picture of how he goes about his analysis as well as giving us the benefit of it. I'm not sure he quite achieves what he sets out to achieve but it was a good evening.
Elliot Wave is a measure, or picture if you prefer, of crowd psychology. Bill therefore only uses it where 'mass hysteria' is likely to be present e.g. indicies, forex and commodities. He won't even use it on FTSE100 stocks.
I'm not going to bore you with the detail. Elliot Wave goes in waves, in an uptrend it's broadly bigger up phases than down phases and that reverses for a downtrend. Although the counts on the DOW, FTSE and S&P are not black and white, they pretty much discount anything , particularly given the known economic and fundamental data, other than a deep bear market for several years to come. One chart he put up of the S&P suggested 2011 for the bottom but frankly I don't see how time can be derived from EW. It's pure speculation.
Bill prefers to use long term charts. By long term I mean long term. 100 years or the maximum datum available. It didn't really matter whether he used monthly, weekly or daily charts, the result was always the same: down.
Gold, Oil, Indices all going down. Why? EW aside, the credit crunch will continue, and in the end nobody, private or commercial will be able to borrow money and everyone will just go bust. Bill favours Swiss Bank Accounts and is starting to put money into his. He doesn't rule out a 1929 crash. This wasn't a sensationalist presentation; he is a level headed academic sort.
Broadly, the forecast to the end of the year isn't bad. We're at the start of the count and the 'big down' is ahead in 2009. We could even see a good rally to the end of the year. 5700 on FTSE then down and the up before hard down.
One trade he thinks is on is that the dollar will strengthen. His Home grown dollar vs basket of currencies has triggered long in both the weekly and daily, or was it daily and monthly. Whatever, buy the dollar. Now, after he said that, and it's this that I find frustrating, he then said "but don't rule out a move to 2.05/2.10 before it hits 1.70. Oh. The fundamental reason behind the move is that when the US calls in all its loans, the world will have to pay them back in dollars. Simple as that.
Oil chart really wasn't that clear. It looks likely to continue down in short term but the count and the Gann fractions (which seem to be a lot like Fib levels), do not rule out an impulse move to $200. Well, we can all see what would prompt such a a move so let's not laugh too loudly.
Gold doesn't produce a workable count; so he simply said that it didn't and moved on. That's what I like about Bill.
After the Elliot Wave bit he did some share analysis. Here he just uses simple channels and trendlines, pretty much as we do. He's big on MACD divergence as well. His channels are less exacting than mine; so he was busy finding upward channels on stocks where I would be screaming "sell".
There weren't very many people there and at one point I had to tell a very irritating woman in the front row to shut the f@@k up. Bill looked alarmed but pleased as I put on my 'firm, I mean business' voice, reserved only for the kids when they have crossed 'the line'. Rather alarmingly she left shortly afterwards and before the end. Hey ho.
The advantage of the small crowd was that we could ask for a few stocks to be analysed. Someone picked HAWK - Bill concluded that it was looking weak and needs to bounce off 65p or much weakness ahead. Remember, he was only looking at the chart and knows nothing about HAWK.
He pretty much drew my [unpublished] chart of BARC, resistance at 400p, stop should be at 335. He also sees a weak H&S (weak because the volume isn't quite right…needs high volume on left shoulder and lower volume on head and right shoulder) giving a target of 475.
He pretty much drew my [unpublished] chart of SBRY, which has broken out of a downtrend but has resistance at 400p. However, he then added a bit of added value. When the price fails to reach the bottom of a channel, this 'gap' can be used to measure the likely move from a breakout of the channel.
About the Author
Spread Trader is the nom-de-plume of Andy Richardson a UK based spread trader, who like his inspiration, the late Jesse Livermore is a student of the markets and plays a lone hand. Resident financial spread betting expert Andy publishes a question and answer spread betting guide where one can find objective spread trading information.
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Filed under Medical Mobility & Disability Equipment by on May 10th, 2010. 
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